[pf] Global Trends 2015

by Kaleopono

24 December 2000 22:45 UTC

An editorial reprinted in West Hawaii Today from the Minneapolis
Start-Tribune mentioned a report "from the U.S. intelligence community"
titled Global Trends 2015, on many dangers to national security arising from
the devastating effects of globalization:  regional insufficiency of water
and food, the spread of disease, and "economic stagnation, political
instability, and cultural alienation."
Also referenced was President Clinton's "powerful" speech on world poverty
at the University of Warwick in Coventry, England.  "We have seen how abject
poverty accelerates turmoil and conflict, how it creates recruits for
terrorists and those who incite ethnic and religious hatred, how it fuels a
violent rejection of open economic and social order upon which our future
depends.  Global poverty is a powder keg, ignitable by our indifference."

The editorial writer ended with the observation that Americans certainly
have a humanitarian interest in aiding the billions of human beings in this
world who live on less than $1 a day, have no clean water, no schools, no
health care, no security and no hope.  But Americans also have a national
interest, for if the powder keg of world poverty explodes, the waters of the
oceans will offer very little protection.

Here's what I found when I searched the Web.
Kaleopono
________
1)  Global Trends: 1980-2015 and Beyond
by Bradford De Long, University of California, Berkeley, under contract with
Industry Canada, 1998
SUMMARY

TWO GLOBAL FORCES HAVE DOMINATED THE DEVELOPMENT of the world economy for
the past two decades, and promise to dominate the future economic
development of the world for at least the next two decades. The first is the
increasing integration of the world economy -- what is often termed
"globalization". The second is the worldwide productivity slowdown that
struck the industrial economies in the mid-1970s, and that ended the "Great
Keynesian Boom" of the first post-World War II generation.

Full text of the summary at:  http://strategis.ic.gc.ca/SSG/ra01741e.html
There's a link at the bottom of the summary to download the entire report in
PDF format.

2)  The CIA in the New World Order: Intelligence Challenges Through 2015.
Remarks by John C. Gannon, Chairman, National Intelligence Council, to the
Smithsonian Associates' "Campus on the Mall" -- 1 February 2000

Speech text at:
http://www.odci.gov/cia/public_affairs/speeches/dci_speech_020200smithson.ht
ml

3)  Intelligence Challenges Through 2015, Remarks by John C. Gannon,
Chairman, National Intelligence Council, to the Columbus Council on World
Affairs, 27 April 2000

Speech text at:
http://www.odci.gov/cia/public_affairs/speeches/gannon_speech_05022000.html

4)  The United Nations CyberSchoolBus:

      Global Trends

      This is a place where you can get a visual overview of what is
happening around the world. Important regional and global information is
presented in the form of charts and graphs, sometimes accompanied by
insightful summaries. On screen or in hard copy, the graphs and charts
listed below are useful visual aids for all teachers.
      We are always adding new graphs and new charts. If there are any
specific graphs you require, e-mail us and we'll do our best to find or
generate one for you. If we can't do it, we'll let you know where the best
possible source would be.

      You can download or print these graphs for free, as long as they are
being used for educational purposes.



Website:  http://www.un.org/Pubs/CyberSchoolBus/special/globo/glotrend/

5)  Global Issues of the Twenty-First Century: United Nations Challenges, an
annotated bibliography by Christopher Spencer, Former Senior Advisor
International Organizations, Canadian Department of Foreign Affairs and
International Trade.  Updated: 25 Nov 00.  At:
http://www.global-challenges.org/index.html.  From "Why this bibliography,
and how to use it":


For the first time in human history, tens of millions of us (probably before
long a billion) are:

(1) literate in the same language (English: you're reading this, aren't
you?);

(2) extremely well-informed by historic standards (through education,
training, media, travel);

(3) able to access the world's best and most informed minds (by print,
sound, or sight);

(4) able to communicate almost everywhere, directly and instantly (via this
medium); and

(5) concerned to some degree about at least one global problem (if not, quit
here).

BUT we, the most "qualified" generations ever born, seem to be totally
incompetent when we try to focus on, let alone solve together, the growing
number of serious and urgent global issues. (If you can't think of any, then
PLEASE read the INTRODUCTION.) There are two broad reasons for this
inability. First, we've been taught to think "locally", or at best
nationally. Problems outside our family, community, or nation are not our
concern, unless we perceive them directly threatening the interests of our
group. So, we erect short-sighted physical and mental borders around our
selfishness. Second, whatever our occupations we're all specialists, simply
because of the way our more and more complex society operates. Human
activity and expertise is split by sector and discipline. Each can now take
decades to learn and a lifetime to keep current. So our second preconception
encloses another "group": our life-related facts, skills and relationships.

Global issues by definition respect no borders, by their nature transit any
discipline and, sharing a common ecosystem, are all in some way
interrelated. Yet no one naturally thinks in world-wide, inter-disciplinary,
multi-factor ways. Even those who perceive this essential, to truly
understand the complexity of global challenges, find it contrary to the way
we're taught to think. Moreover, there's no universal source to consult.
Nevertheless, if you're interested in global issues, or just wonder how we
got into such a mess with them, a one-stop, consumer-friendly guide to what
is available offers both stimulation and insight. If you also need to feel
useful: the more people with some real sense of the nature and interplay of
global problems, the more likely progress can be made in dealing with them.
Hence this digest of non-technical material on"global challenges",
summarizing the best of current thinking on a wide range of global issues.
It keeps growing, since never before has there been so much relevant
material. Inevitably selective and subjective, it also tries hard to be
readable, reliable and representative.

The United Nations is mentioned frequently. It is far and away our most
effective and credible global player. In attempting to find and apply
solutions to world problems, the System - with all its faults - is the only
global 911 we've got. Moreover, neither time nor consensus would now produce
an improved substitute, while its loss would result in chaos, with no agreed
system of rules, constraints or help. Our very interdependent world
civilization - proliferating weapons and crises - might not survive.
Consequently, we must also understand the UN's role and capacity.

Since you may want some guidance in using such a long and concentrated
knowledge-pool, here's some tips on getting the best use, most easily and
quickly, out of the bibliography: